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Party novelty and congruence: A new approach to measuring party change and volatility

Sikk, A; Köker, P; (2017) Party novelty and congruence: A new approach to measuring party change and volatility. Party Politics 10.1177/1354068817747512. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

We propose a new three-dimensional approach to party newness and an interval index of party congruence/novelty. Building on this, we also propose a split-vote-by-congruence (SBC) approach to electoral volatility that employs the index. Four elections from different countries that exhibited different forms of party change are used to illustrate the approach. The congruence/novelty index corresponds to our qualitative case knowledge, and the SBC approach leads to meaningful volatility scores. Ad hoc coding of parties as new/old or singular successors/predecessors can seriously over- or underestimate volatility that explains divergence among volatility scores in literature. By eliminating the need for dichotomous and often controversial coding decisions, the SBC approach allows for a substantially more reliable calculation of volatility.

Type: Article
Title: Party novelty and congruence: A new approach to measuring party change and volatility
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/1354068817747512
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068817747512
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: electoral coalitions, new parties, party change, splits and mergers, volatility
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10037607
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