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Predictive value of multiple cytokines and chemokines for mortality in an admixed population: 15-year follow-up of the Bambui-Epigen (Brazil) cohort study of aging

Lima-Costa, MF; de Melo Mambrini, JV; de Lima Torres, KC; Peixoto, SV; de Oliveira, C; Tarazona-Santos, E; Teixeira-Carvalho, A; (2017) Predictive value of multiple cytokines and chemokines for mortality in an admixed population: 15-year follow-up of the Bambui-Epigen (Brazil) cohort study of aging. Experimental Gerontology , 98 pp. 47-53. 10.1016/j.exger.2017.08.002. Green open access

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Abstract

Inflammation, particularly elevated IL-6 serum levels, has been associated with increased mortality risk, mostly in Caucasians. The influence of genetic ethno-racial background on this association is unknown. We examined associations between baseline serum levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and other cytokines (IL1-2, TNF, IL-10, and IL1β) and chemokines (CCL2, CCL5, CXCL8, CXCL9 and CXCL10) with 15-year mortality in 1,191 admixed Brazilians aged 60 years and over. Elevated IL6 level (but not other biomarkers) was associated with increased risk of deaths with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 1.51 (95% CI = 1.15, 1.97), 1.54 (95% CI = 1.20, 1.96) and 1.79 (95% CI = 1.40, 2.29) for the 2nd, 3rd and the highest quartiles, respectively. Genomic African and Native American proportions did not modify the association (p > 0.05). The discriminatory ability to predict death of a model based on IL-6 alone was similar as that of a comprehensive morbidity score (C statistics = 0.59 and 0.60, respectively). The abilities of IL-6 and the morbidity score models to predict death remained stable for very long term after the baseline measurement. Our results indicate that genome-based African and Native American ancestries have no impact on the prognostic value of IL-6 for mortality.

Type: Article
Title: Predictive value of multiple cytokines and chemokines for mortality in an admixed population: 15-year follow-up of the Bambui-Epigen (Brazil) cohort study of aging
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.exger.2017.08.002
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.exger.2017.08.002
Language: English
Additional information: © 2017 Published by Elsevier Inc. This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Geriatrics & Gerontology, Inflammatory markers, Interleukin-6, Cytokines, Chemokines, Mortality, Genomic ancestry, Admixed population, DWELLING OLDER-ADULTS, C-REACTIVE PROTEIN, COMMUNITY, INTERLEUKIN-6, INFLAMMATION, HEALTH, MEN, HOSPITALIZATION, BIOMARKERS, DISEASE
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10035920
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